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I'm wondering if SEOmoz is overreacting to some of my link text, or if I should alter the text?

When you are targeting long tail key phrases, your main phrase is likely to be part of many longtail phrases.  In my case the homepage targets 'company formations' and the link that's been flagged in the On-Page Report is "Prices for Irish Limited Company Formation" which isn't that close of a match.

It's a link in my main navigation, so whatever I change it to chances are the wording will be similar to key phrases I am targeting on other pages. Also, making sure the link text makes most sense to users is a priority!

Thanks Martin, your reponses have clarified this a bit.

Thanks Matt!  I had a feeling as that is usually the case with all things SEO! Thanks also for the link to the Matt Cuts video, very helpful.

I've recently redeveloped a static site using WordPress and have created 301 redirects for the original urls to the new urls.  I know I won't get all the value passed via the 301, but I'm hoping some will.  Any idea how long this may take? It's been nearly a month since the changeover so wondering if it would be weeks, months or more?

Google don't give exact numbers and don't get specific about what the numbers do represent, but it is very handy to compare phrases - which is more popular, etc. - in deciding which to use on your site. The main reason why I didn't Wordtracker a few years ago was that I needed to know usage based on location and, as far as I know, Google is the only one that can give that kind of detail.