Trying to forecast organic growth will be extremely difficult to do. It really depends on what they have been doing as compared to what you are planning to do for them.
Have they been conducting content marketing?
Have they been heavily involved in social?
Have they been creating local citations?
Have they... etc. etc. etc.
I'm not saying that you should pull a number out of your ass, but conservatively estimating that you will be able to drive a 20% increase to their organic traffic should be easy to hit, especially if they haven't been doing a lot of what they should have been (see above). If you can't get their traffic up by 20% in a year, they should fire you anyways. Anything about that will make you look like a rock star.