I'm afraid I'm getting a little lost.  I'm still new to all this.

As far as I can tell the correlations are in conflict.  +0.22 exact match.  Domain name length -0.07.  So it seems to me that the data says go for exact match even though it makes it long.

I'm going to guess at what a "breakout" term is.  They must mean keywords like Minneapolis Fitness,  Minneapolis Massage,  etc.

I'm also going to guess that "single word head terms" mean fitness, massage, and Minneapolis.  If so then it is true that we aren't interested in trying to compete for those.

The scope of the project is very small.  Basically a personal trainer and a massage therapist who want to bring in a few extra clients.  The site would be very small scale as well, basically a platform for them to interact with their client base, and bring in a new client or two from time to time.

I'm hoping that the level of traffic for "minneapolis massage" and "minneapolis fitness" or "minneapolis personal trainer" would bring enough traffic to accomplish the goal of bringing in 2 or 3 new regular clients per year for each of the professionals.

If this is a poor assumption someone please let me know so I can adjust our expectations.

yep, 3 n's is a mistake.  So you think the exactmatch.com is overkill for these keywords?  Might be better to go with something shorter and more branded?

I noticed one of the negatively correlated ranking factors was length of URL.  I'm building a page from scratch, we are trying to rank for 'Minneapolis Fitness' and 'Minneapolis Massage'.

Is www.minnnepolismassageandfitness.com  just ridiculously long?  Or does the exact match outweigh the penalty for URL length?