How to estimate search volume for multiple long tail queries?

[guitarsites]

I am comparing Moz, WordTracker and Google keyword research tools and trying to figure out how I can compare the aggregated search volume for a page which targets several similar long-tail queries.

For instance, according to one tool, the query 'printable guitar sheet music' has 125 monthly searches, but many small variations of this also have a similar amount. Do I just make a reasonable list and calculate them? Or do I just use "125" as an abstract number of measurement with no concrete reference to a **real **number of searchers, but useful in comparing one keyword to the next, and assume that all key words have a similar degree of consorting variations?

I seem to remember Google used to give away some pretty damned useful information in the keyword search tool, including monthly search volume. But now it looks like the metric is not actual search volume, but a 1-100 score based on the search volume.

So my questions are:

1. Should I try to convert these numbers into real search figure estimates or just use them for comparing one to the next?

2. Should I worry about trying to combine the aggregated variations of long tail keyword searches, or should I just choose one good keyword and let that represent all possible variations?

[EGOL]

I'm taking our web pages and trying to figure out if they're targeted poorly or written using terms that the average searcher would not think to ask.

This is good.  Nice work.

[guitarsites]

Thanks! I'm checking that out. As I mentioned in another response, these are super-long-tail keywords because rather than looking for opportunities for new content, I'm also looking for opportunities to reshape some existing content to get more matches. Sometimes, as an Educated Person, I sit down and write some page title that, as it turns out, nobody else in the world would think of except me. I have 10 years of experience in my topic and my audience sometimes has 1 week of experience, so they will use different vocabulary. In order to make sure my content can reach people who need it, I'm looking backwards to see how I may have used the wrong words.

[guitarsites]

That's a good point. Another thing is I'm looking at really long-tail stuff. That's because some of my efforts are going backwards. I'm taking our web pages and trying to figure out if they're targeted poorly or written using terms that the average searcher would not think to ask.

I'm not quite up-to-speed on the Knowledge Box but considering the places where I have seen it used, I don't think it quite works yet on my niche.

I am waiting for them to implement this feature for guitar diagrams. People often search for reference guitar information such as scales and chords. I'm happy to markup my content for the Knowledge Box.

[StreamlineMetrics]

I highly recommend checking out Long Tail Pro. It uses the GAKP but its interface is much easier to use rather than using Google directly. Also, you can plug in a couple of keywords and generate thousands of long tail keyword phrases and filter by search volume, organic competition, keyword difficulty (uses the Moz API), etc.  While the data is still from Google and the keyword data may not be 100% accurate, I think it will get you a lot closer to what you are trying to accomplish than you would using any of these other tools.

[EGOL]

Or do I just use "125" as an abstract number of measurement with no concrete reference to a real number of searchers

I take a quick look at the numbers in wordtracker.   I am not trying to get into a big mathematical exercise.  When looking at wordtracker I am just trying to make a "yes" or "no" decision about creating content.... or trying to make a "this keyword" or "that keyword" decision on how to optimize.

I am highly inclined to mathematics but I don't spend much time on these numbers. I do know some people who would make a three-day study about this with spreadsheets because they are thinkin' about writing a two paragraph page.  That is a total waste of their time.

Is the wind blowing or ain't it?   Get to work or abort.    It is that simple.

The more important question about these number is:  "Are people really searching for the same meaning of the keyword?"

Take an example the word "sapphire".....  You got in mind a blue gemstone... but that word could be used for graphics cards, pokemon, credit cards, mobile phone windows, Ford motor cars, strippers, who knows what else... so most of that volume that you saw in wordtracker and got excited about is not relevant to what you are selling.

In this Q&A we see lots of people pouring buckets of money into a website and their competitors are not who they think they are.   They just looked at these numbers instead of trying to understand what people are lookin' for and more importantly, who is competing.

Sometimes the strength of the sites going after the small part of the volume is overwhelming compared to the sites who have the information that everybody is lookin' for.  That, in my opinion, is why Google started Knowledge Box... and where they now display Knowledge Box they have given minor volume competitors better positions in the SERPs and pushed the sites with what people are looking for down to second and third page - because they want you to use the Knowledge Box.  They want searchers to think "Google got the info" - even though they scraped it from my site and gave me a link in microscopic black font while links to alternative searches on money keyword with lots of ads are in big blue font.