How can I project changes to Page Authority?

[phantom]

Lets say I have a PA 50 website, and I just got a PA 60 link from another site. Is there any way to project, mathematically, what that new link will do to my page's authority?

Would the formula look something like this?

New PA = Current Page PA + ((New Link PA*dampening factor)/Total number of links on new page)

In the absence of a mathematical model to predict shifts in PA, how can you be confident that a specific action will help you progress towards an authority objective?

[AdamThompson]

A couple notes:

• Page Authority measures the authority of specific webpages, not websites. The authority of a website is measured by Domain Authority.
• SEOmoz's authority metrics are not the same metrics Google uses, so don't place too much emphasis on your SEOmoz authority metrics. They are useful, but far from infallible.
• You can never be 100% certain how any specific action is contributing to your site's authority. The closer your links adhere to best practices and Google's "wish list", though, the closer to 100% confident you can be.

The answer to your question, unfortunately, is no. Page and Domain Authority metrics are based on dozens of specific metrics. Additionally, they aren't simple mathmatical metrics. They use "a machine learning model to predicatively find an algorithm that best correlates with rankings across thousands of search results that we predict against."

So you would need to predict how dozens of individual metrics would change, as well as how the algorithm itself will change at the next update.